Tragedy of Afghanistan: Will We Ever Learn? Do We Even Want to?
US military helicopter flies above the US embassy in Kabul, August 2021
WAKIL KOHSAR/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Foreword
After twenty years, four Presidents, 100’s of thousands of people killed or maimed, trillions of dollars spent – we have finally withdrawn from Afghanistan. The longest war in American history is over. Contrary to what you might see on cable news or social media this should not be a time for partisan bickering. This is an opportunity for all of us to take a long and sobering look in the mirror. It’s time to recon with our war machine and its tentacles that seem to drive us towards conflict. Unfortunately, however, we are at a place in society that rewards sensationalist hot takes and inflammatory rhetoric over real, open discourse.
Part of the reason why I’m writing this is because very few outlets are asking the right questions. They’re omitting important contextual points and purposefully framing with a very narrow lens. Everything is being spun as party politics: Trump vs. Biden; critiquing the exit strategy (this-justifiably so); asking if we should go back and maintain a presence or my personal favorite pretending to be shocked at how bad of a situation it is like we never did something like this before (See Vietnam). ). Seriously, we are not even fully withdrawn and there’s a palpable push to re-enter. That would mean more bombing, more troop death, more civilian death, etc. Is this a case of collective amnesia or are war hawks pursuing a clear angle?
A lot of the people on TV that are sharing these sentiments and recommendations are the very people’s whose atrocious judgment got us stuck in the Middle East for 20 years. Neocons and neoliberals seem to be crawling out from underneath every rock on earth to voice their opinions. It’s scary to me to see John Bolton- a man who if he had his way would have had launched at least 2 more wars in the Middle East ( see Iran and Syria)- being hoisted up on cable news as an expert who we should be listening too without any mention of his passed track record.
All this and no one’s taking a step back and asking the big question: why and how did we get stuck in Middle East for 20 years?
The truth is so many people got this one so wrong from day 1. There is plenty of blame to go around. That’s part of the reason why not many people want to really turn back the clock and perform an honest post-mortem.
But, if we are to learn from our mistakes and not be doomed to repeat them, a sober & objective look is necessary.
Due to the long duration of this conflict many people who are trying to make sense of this disaster were not born, were too young at the time, weren’t paying attention or simply forgot. That’s not your fault. 20 years is a long time. However, with a subject this complex and important we must examine it holistically- not only focusing on the end results but how we got here.
A Quick Synopsis
The “War on Terror” is coming to an unceremonious end with almost nothing to show for it. Mission… accomplished? Sorry George W., anything but. Now go back to pursuing your Bob Ross rebrand. Everyone is keen to assign blame according party affiliation but the truth is Republicans and Democrats both cheerleaded this conflict even as their constituents soured on the idea of an indefinite occupation.
The United States, Iraq and Afghanistan will be inexplicitly tied for the rest of time. What started as claims of going after Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda in wake of September 11th quickly devolved quickly into a full-blown nation building exercise. Even after killing Osama Bin Laden and crippling Al Qaeda we moved the goal post and found reasons to stay with no concrete goals or exit strategy.
We opted to use a meat clever where a scalpel would have sufficed. A successful response to 9/11 didn’t have to mean spending 20 years invading two countries (don’t forget about Iraq), toppling governments, destabilizing an entire region of the world, creating power vacuums, spending trillions of dollars nation building, losing 100’s of thousands of lives and having thousand’s of our own soldiers left killed, maimed and/or battling PTSD.
Even as no progress was made and support for the war among citizen’s evaporated we were stuck with the reality of endless war. Now no progress might sound like an exaggeration but according to the Afghanistan Papers that recently leaked the government was completely misleading the public as to the progress and state of the war effort. They couldn’t even take a car from the airport to the US Embassy in Kabul- all transport done by helicopter. These lies span from Bush through Obama to Trump and up to Biden. Just last month President Biden said he was confident in the Afghan government and their military of “300,000”. That was barely 30 days ago. Not exactly what we have been watching unfold on TV.
To categorize this situation another way, in the words of the GI’s who fought in World War II: FUBAR.
So here we are.
Afghanistan: What’s Next?
Owning the Reality on the Ground
Right now the world is witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe that is just starting its process of unraveling. It’s truly heartbreaking. The Taliban have retaken control of the country for the first time since 2001. The capital, Kabul, has fallen. The government collapsed, political leaders have all fled and the Afghani military laid down their weapons- leaving behind weapons, helicopters, drones, tanks, brand new government infrastructure for the Taliban to absorb.
Can’t forget to mention, all surrendering without a fight, highlighting how delusional our policymakers were in thinking they could remake a country in their preferred image. The images of people fleeing, hiding and begging to be evacuated can put a knot in your stomach. The chaos, the fear, the anarchy; it’s all very palpable as an army of religious zealots who are stuck morally and socially in the 9th century enclose around them.
True to form, the United States acted impulsively and without consultation with our allies or NATO. It’s never pretty exiting a country after a conflict, especially when it’s not resolved. That’s why its of paramount importance to take an all hands on deck approach and bring in the international community to facilitate the smoothest transition as possible. We had to leave but we should have done it more carefully and with more international cooperation. Now thousands of people are in desperate need of evacuation.
The Afghan government was totally propped up by the United States for the better part of 20 years. The government and military were not organically supported by the people and in turn were not viewed as legitimate. The people looked at them as extensions of the United States and they weren’t wrong. The only thing that was keeping that coalition together was their salaries that were being paid with your tax dollars. There is a disconnect between our interests and theirs & once we leave it’s hard to imagine a scenario where people are going to lay down their lives for another countries foreign policy objectives.
The only way governments work are if people feel they have skin in the game and are actually being represented. This is why nation building never works. You can’t force people to believe in something. We arrived to an incredibly complex region of the world 20 years ago and tried to force our western ideals, values and societal structures onto them. A recipe for disaster since you’re creating a house of cards doomed to collapse the minute you leave.
As weak, inept and corrupt as the government was- because of the United States’ occupation- the people were afforded more rights and a certain way of life that would have been otherwise unavailable to them. Women, children, the LGBTQ+ community, people who worked with the United States, western residents, non-religious, religious moderates, reformers and westerners left behind are in grave danger. The international community is going to need to watch very closely and do everything possible to prevent a massive loss of life.
Power Vacuum to be Filled
As the United States and the prior government essentially disappear from the region the Taliban are filling all that space. Everyone reflexively understands the Taliban are bad but I think it’s important to really flesh out who and what they are. It’s the only way you can actually appreciate the magnitude of the situation.
The Taliban is an ultra-conservative, paramilitary, religious-extremist group that is going to implement a theocratic form of government. When you’re dealing with a theocracy you have to understand they take the words from their holy book literally. If you decide you want to leave the religion you can be killed. If you disobey the rules and practices of the text you can be stoned, lashed, hung or worse.
Gay people will be persecuted and killed- some thrown off buildings for their ‘sins’. Women and young girl’s rights stripped back 1000 years. They will lose autonomy over their body and in the worst cases could be sold into sex slavery or killed for disobeying. They will no longer be allowed to attend school and if they want to leave their home it must be in a burka. They can forget about pursuing a career in a field they choose or driving a car without a man’s permission unless they want to risk an acid attack or honor killing.
Soon, we are going to be confronted with a difficult reality where some uncomfortable conversations about the role of religions in our modern societies will be necessary. As much as people prefer to walk on eggshells around these kind of sensitive issues that involve religion and cultures not that of our own, we are going to have to come to terms with the fact that many people’s lives are not tied to an interpretation of a 1000 year old religious text. The kind of religion inspired horrors of the Crusades and Inquisition may be right before our eyes in no time. And if we can look back on them now and acknowledge the utter horrors and cruelty – what is the difference now?
The Lessons of History Speak Loudly & for Themselves.
Necessary Context on Afghanistan
The media and politicians would prefer to use click-bait headlines, tired talking points and sensationalism but if you’re really going to form a well-reasoned position on this issue you are going to need some more contextual scaffolding. Afghanistan is one of those truly unique regions of the world with a truly, huge geological home-field advantage built into the country, along with a unique culture that lends itself to decentralized power. It is incredibly diverse and resembles more a collection of tribes cooperating than a single state. Some of the biggest ethnic groups that make up this country are the Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen, Aimaq, Baluch, Nuristani, and. Kizilbashwith. If you want to get something done in Afghanistan you must navigate a delicate push and pull relationship between all these groups.
Aside from the extreme weather, Afghanistan has some of the largest, most difficult to navigate mountain ranges in the world. Featuring deeply, intricate and widespread cave systems that lend themselves to guerilla warfare; these are the kinds of places that are nearly unreachable on foot and un-bombable because of the mountain’s protection. Partially because of this unusual terrain historically the ruling governments in the region were forged through coalitions of provincial warlords since it was almost impossible to consolidate power through conquest.
Nation Building: Many Have Tried, Many Have Failed
The lessons of history speak loudly and for themselves whether we want to listen or not. After 20 years the biggest, baddest military machine in the history of the world couldn’t achieve victory. It wasn’t a time thing either- we could have stayed 5, 10, 20, 100 more years and the result would have been the same. 20th century war machines don’t hold up well when asked to engage in traditional guerilla or more modern urban warfare that literally involves soldiers clearing houses like SWAT teams.
Not to mention you can’t occupy a country indefinitely or install a new government somewhere when they don’t want you there in the first place. It takes a special level of indifference, arrogance and hubris to try breaking down and building back up a country’s culture against its own will. The world is a scary, complex place filled with lots of bad people, however, that does not give you the green light to turn the world into your own Risk board game in the name of the ‘good’.
Remember Libya? After we toppled their dictator (who was not a nice guy) the country fell into total chaos. You can actually watch on YouTube as refugees, immigrants and political prisoners are openly sold into slavery. Like most things in life, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Sometimes the choice is between bad and worse, not good and bad. To fail to consider this fact is to fail as a leader.
This isn’t a uniquely American folly either. The doldrums of history are littered with examples countries making this fundamental mistake. Afghanistan just has a richer history than most due to its desirable geopolitical position. The British were famously expelled from Afghanistan in the 19th century after a failed campaign to seize control of the country. This blunder was famously and horrifically punctuated with the massacre of all but one (so he could share the story) of the 16,000 troops as they retreated from Kabul back to India. Upon hearing the news, the governor who oversaw the operation had a stroke. A little over a century later, the Soviet Union tried and failed just the same. All ending with a messy and untimely exit from the region. We were just next on deck, I guess.
But How Did it Come to This?
Now we’re left sitting here looking at this mess wondering if we even have anything to show for it. I say forget that. The real question is how the hell did it get to this point in the first place.
Part of the reason is we let it.
The uncomfortable truth is the longer the conflict went on the more it became normalized for people and the more people got normalized to it the easier it was for the government to stay.
That’s not to say people didn’t put up a fight. There was fierce opposition to the war leading up to it and in the early years among the population but as time marched on and the government refused to relent the movement slowly lost momentum until people just started accepting the new reality. We have a perverse incentive structure in Washington D.C. that rewards lobbying and insulates members of government from the pressures of their constituents so they were able to employ a strategy of waiting people out until enough gave up.
If that makes you angry, sad, disappointed, uncomfortable, disagreeable or shocked- good. Hold onto that, you’ll need that resolve in the future. It takes a high level of courage and confidence in oneself to stand up to the war machine when the drums are beating everywhere you look. Don’t let it happen again but remember you will probably be voicing a minority opinion and receiving stark criticism. When it’s unfolding, war is usually the easy choice to make.
The type of courage required? Making a stand in front of Congress, 3 days after September 11th, while being outvoted 420 to 1 opposing a war in Afghanistan.
Barbara Lee, thank you.
Individual people are not to blame. The system failed us at every step of the way.
The point is: it is your government and certain things just cannot be tolerated from public officials.
Who’s to blame? A Bipartisan Affair with some special guests.
Can you think of one person you know who wanted to be in the Middle East for two decades? I’ve never met one. Ever.
Yet we never left? Huh.
This should be a rare issue that the American people- dare I say- unite around because we all agree! That’s why it’s crazy to me watching the blame game unfold on the news and social media as people desperately try to apply tribal, team politics to this issue. Folk’s sometimes you can agree with people you do not normally agree with! People are complicated. We aren’t all monoliths. Shocking thought, I know.
“Well Trump did a terrible job negotiating the exit”. “Biden pulled out too fast without adequate planning”. Right, right, right. What’s another few years and another trillion? The soldiers, the people involved- its all good- they’ll take another one for the team. Maybe go for that glitzy quarter of a century mark. The big 2-5. I’m sure that the situation will be so much better then. As alluring as it can be to continue to do the same things expecting a different result, sometimes life is about knowing when to cut your losses- however messy. Just be happy we actually left because plenty of forces wanted to stay.
Look, there’s a lot to be mad about but that anger shouldn’t be focused on each other. We all footed the bill for a war we didn’t want to be in, we all sent our young men and women to fight in it, we neglected investments at home for conquests abroad. We all had our wishes disregarded. That should be disturbing to us all because as John Locke said the government is supposed to work through the ‘consent of the governed‘. Meaning if the populace doesn’t support something, it should not be done.
It’s not one politicians fault, it’s all their faults.
It’s not one politicians fault; it’s all their faults. If you want to put a face to this disaster rewind the clock back to 2001 and focus your jeers to George Bush and Dick Cheney but please don’t stop there. Both parties drove us into this conflict head first, sabre rattling and fear mongering with bad intelligence. Then both parties kept us in the war for decades. It was a neocon and neoliberal crossover event that rivals even that of the Avengers. George Bush, Dick Cheney, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden (must give some credit for leaving but at the time was a huge cheerleader), Obama (voted against war but once in office not only didn’t pull out he expanded the war efforts) all on the same side of an issue- never thought I’d see the day.
Special Guests: News Media & Military Industrial Complex
Why would they do that? I talked previously about how outside forces can sometimes impact government when they have converging interests. The unfortunate truth is there is a lot of money to be made with war and where there is money there is influence. In 2000, we spent 466 billion a year on defense; fast-forward to now we are spending roughly 716 billion a year. A fraction of that money goes to troops and military families, most of that goes to private business and contractors. The vast majority goes to private defense companies and lobbyists who live around the Washington D.C. area. That’s why 6 of the 10 richest counties in the country encircle Washington D.C..
If all that wasn’t enough to make a little alarmed this should do the trick: all that money, every year is not allowed to be audited. Like literally, ever. That’s rights, the Pentagon refuses audits. No accountability. No oversight. Rut-roh.
To state the obvious: that’s a lot of money up for grabs every year. In total we have spent trillions of dollars just on Afghanistan alone. It’s big business. The defense industry want’s to make as much money as possible so they create incentive structures to donate to candidates who will go along to get along and oppose candidates who do not.
The news media love’s it because they get incredible ratings showing War Porn on the nightly news. The Gulf War and initial invasion into Iraq and Afghanistan was show on TV like an action movie. Every night the news leading with Tomahawk missiles launched off boats, Humvee’s rolling through the street, fire fights erupting on street corners. It gives them- excuse the pun- explosive material to cover every night. That’s why they don’t put up much of a fight anymore keeping the government honest on matters of war. If you don’t believe me, consider this Washington Post headline (back when the Washington Post had real sway) asserting that war was necessary in the Middle East because the proliferation of WMD’s (weapons of mass destruction- think nukes) in the region.
Irrefutable huh? Well I guess if you exclude the UN and all the 3rd Party experts who specialize in tracking these kinds of weapons who said their was absolutely zero evidence of WMD‘s. Should have tried asking them. The lesson here is to remain calm even when everyone wants you to be worked up. Think clearly and objectively because you never know why someone is trying to make you feel a certain way.
You show me the incentives, I’ll show you the outcomes.
No matter how unpopular a conflict is or becomes- collectively we need to realize- there are always strong incentives pushing the trend towards war. If you tell the right group of unscrupulous business men that they can spend 2.5 billion dollars over 20 years financing political campaigns and impacting policy in order to get 2-3 trillion thrown back their way- they will do it 10 out of 10 times. That’s a great return on investment. The system needs to be corrected.
“Capitalizing on conflict: How defense contractors and foreign nations lobby for arms sales,” details how a network of lobbyists and donors steered $285 million in campaign contributions and $2.5 billion in lobbying spending over the last two decades, as well as hiring more than 200 lobbyists who previously worked in government.
Center for Responsive Politics
“Five of the nation’s biggest defense contractors — Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon Technologies and General Dynamics — spent a combined $60 million in 2020 to influence policy”
military.com
But don’t take my word for it. Take the word of the dude who was Supreme Allied Commander, Nazi ass-kicker and 34th President of the United States. A man who got to look behind the curtains for a true taste of how these forces push towards war and conflict. Who would know better?
A sad note about this video is it ran at a time where very few people had TV’s and there were no re-runs. You either tuned in live or missed it. Most people missed it. Makes you think.
Takeaways
There was no good outcome here. The United States had to leave. You can make your critiques but it was always going to be ugly. It’s never not. The standing government essentially collapsed overnight. That’s indicative of just how untenable the situation was. We certainly should have planned a better exit strategy and coordinated with our allies to avoid this dangerous chaos though.
Instead of focusing on blaming each other we should take a step back and focus on not letting this ever happen again. Nation building is a bad idea. Diplomacy, coordination with allies and sanctions should be the priority. We should avoid conflicts if at all possible. We should be skeptical of involving ourselves in regions of the world where our interest is unclear.
It’s also about the opportunity cost. The life, the time, the energy lost. Trillions of dollars with no return. Those trillions of dollars could have been invested in our people. Our healthcare; our schooling; our roads, bridges, airports, railways & so much more.
Maybe most important: the next time one of these potential scenarios arises we need to remember the past and also be weary of the forces that could be potentially pushing toward conflict.
Well worth the 90 seconds; retired General & Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark provides a rare glimpse behind the curtain below:
A Final thought
“As far as I can tell, there’s barely any difference in goals within the foreign policy establishment. They just disagree on the best methods to achieve the goals. My guess is that everyone agrees we have to continue defending the mideast from outside interference (I love that Hillary line), and the [Democrats] just think that best path is four overt wars and three covert actions, while the neocons want to jump straight to seven wars.” -General Wesley Clark
When it comes to conflict we might be best served to exercise our skepticism muscles more often than not. The establishment of both parties are both pro war but in different ways. With neocons and neoliberals the results are the same.
In the above video, General Clark mentioned the countries of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran of being primed targets for conflict, in a retelling of a 2001 conversation.
So lets take a look:
| Iraq | Been there, done that. But started bombing again anyway. |
| Syria | Been there. Bombed it, a lot. Want to go back. Actually started bombing again. |
| Lebanon | ‘Relations are strained’ |
| Libya | Government overthrown. Civil War. Total Chaos. Now considered a failed state. |
| Somalia | We have recently launched a bombing campaign. |
| Sudan | To be determined. |
| Iran | Bipartisan Sanctions and bombings. |
We’ll throw in a bonus 8th – free of charge. Don’t say I never did anything for ya.
Afghanistan.
Didn’t we just leave? Well my spidey senses are telling me we are going to start hearing calls for more and more reengagement beyond just evacuating people in the short term. Whether that means a stationed presence, bombings, drone strikes or covert operations; time will tell. But the incentive is there. Iraq had oil. Afghanistan is sitting on $1 trillion of rare earth minerals that are crucial for many industries of the future (tech, electric driving, renewable energy, etc.). There is already a group of former Afghan army members and rebel leaders- that will be supported with US aid- forming in provinces not controlled by the Taliban. This will ensure civil war to come.
Stay vigilant!
Keep an open mind. Keep your calm. Keep your wit.
Think critically. Eye’s wide open.
Cheers!
About The Author
